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Inc. editor-in-chief George Gendron and Amar Bhidé, author of The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses, discuss Bhidé's surprising conclusions about risk taking, bootstrapping, and successful start-ups.
By George Gendron
Finally, an answer to the question, What's the secret of
start-up success?
I can't even begin to calculate how often
people who are thinking about starting new businesses have asked me to name the
one book that illuminates, more than any other, what it's essential to
understand in order to create a successful start-up. For close to 20 years now,
I've had to answer that there is no such animal. Don't get me wrong -- there
are lots of perfectly acceptable books about almost every imaginable aspect of
starting and running a new venture, from writing a business plan to raising
capital. The limitation of such books is that, important though those tasks may
be, you can get them right and still fall flat on your entrepreneurial face.
But with the recent publication of The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses, by Amar V.
Bhidé (Oxford University Press), there is now a book I can recommend to anyone
starting a business.
This is no 60-Second Entrepreneur.
The book is a demanding read and is based on research Bhidé conducted over a
10-year period at the Harvard Business School, research that sheds light on the
mother of all entrepreneurial questions: What differentiates a successful
start-up from the masses of new businesses that are created every year? During
a series of interviews, Bhidé and I talked about that subject and discussed
topics as diverse as his contention that risk taking is irrelevant to
early-stage company building, and the implications of young Internet companies'
skipping a crucial stage of entrepreneurial development. --George Gendron
Getting started
Inc.: So many of
your findings challenge conventional wisdom about entrepreneurial success. I'm
curious: What has surprised you the most?
Bhidé: I grew up with an entrepreneur. My father started a
series of businesses and eventually built a fairly significant glass-related
business. He was adventuresome, to use that old-fashioned word. The way he
started his companies was ad hoc and improvised and not planned and not
systematic. I had attributed his behavior to his own eccentricity. So I was
very surprised at the extent to which the way he built his businesses was the
same as was true of the founders of Inc. 500 companies. I was even more
surprised that the improvisation was the natural, logical outcome of the sorts
of opportunities that those individuals pursued, of the capital constraints
that they faced, and of their relative lack of human capital. And that it all
made sense.
Inc.: So much of
your research focuses on the difference between ordinary start-ups and those
gazelles, or "promising companies," that go on to achieve significant
levels of success. Could you give us an overview of how successful companies
get started?
Bhidé: Here it is in summary: Most successful entrepreneurs
start without a proprietary idea, without exceptional training and
qualifications, and without significant amounts of capital. And they start
their businesses in uncertain market niches.
Inc.: What
you're saying is, it's not the exceptional start-up that has those
characteristics but most growth companies, right?
Bhidé: Right.
Inc.: Well, then,
let's start with the notion of no proprietary idea, no novel product or service
to offer, which will come as a surprise to many people. How do these promising
businesses get started?
Bhidé: Most are started by someone who is working for
another business, who sees a small niche opportunity -- one in which the
company he or she is working for is already taking advantage of, or one in
which a supplier or customer is involved. And the person jumps in with very
little preparation and analysis but with direct firsthand knowledge of the
profitability of that opportunity -- and pretty much does what somebody else is
already doing, but does it better and faster. These entrepreneurs don't have
anything that differentiates their business from other businesses in terms of
technology or in terms of a concept. They just work harder, hustle for
customers, and know that the opportunity may not last for more than six or
eight months. But they expect to make a reasonable return on those six to eight
months. And along the way they'll figure out something else that will keep the
business going.
Inc.: The idea
that you build a company around novelty -- around a unique proprietary idea --
is very ingrained in our culture.
Bhidé: You're right. All my students, when
they think of how they're going to start a business, want to start with a
clever idea. I have very few students who come to me and say, "I want to
start a business -- I see X do this, and he's incredibly profitable. I want to
do the same thing." That's not the way people seem to think. Yet that's
the way most successful entrepreneurs start up. They make a small modification
in what somebody else is doing.
Inc.: OK, so having a terrific idea for a
business is not a requirement for success. Next, you say that most of these
promising start-ups bootstrap their companies.
Bhidé: It's interesting but not that
surprising when you consider that historically venture capitalists have funded
only a few hundred start-ups every year.
Inc.: I agree. But what does seem to fly
in the face of popular wisdom is the case you make -- quite compellingly --
that risk taking is totally irrelevant to start-up success.
____________________________________________
"What
surprised me is that irrationality is central to the successful start-up, but
it's not the entrepreneur who acts irrationally." --Amar Bhidé ____________________________________________
Bhidé: I think we have to distinguish
between risk taking and a tolerance for ambiguity. Going to Las Vegas and
taking a bet on a roulette wheel requires a lot of risk taking, in the sense
you must be prepared to lose what you put up. But a tolerance for ambiguity,
which is a characteristic of successful start-up entrepreneurs, is a willingness
to jump into things when it's hard to even imagine what the possible set of
outcomes will be. It means going ahead in the absence of information and in the
absence of having much capital and in the absence of having a novel idea. In
fact, just by looking at the amount of capital that people put on the table,
you can see that those entrepreneurs don't have a lot of financial risk, and
because most of them are young, their opportunity costs are not that great.
Inc.: But, wait. This is huge: great
ideas and risk just aren't relevant to start-up success.
Bhidé: But it's true. Most founders of
promising companies do not start out as innovators or risk bearers. Those roles
do become salient at a later stage of the enterprise.
Inc.: I want to get into that, but before
we do, there must be millions of undercapitalized start-ups with nonproprietary
products. What distinguishes the promising ones from your everyday laundry or
lawn-care company?
Bhidé: The elite start-ups, although on
the surface they may look a lot like the laundry or the lawn-care company, are
actually born under different circumstances. They seem to be dispersed across
the economy, but in fact there are pockets in which they are found. Part of the
great joy of discovery of this process for me was to be able to characterize
the nature of those pockets through talking to the entrepreneurs at great
length and finding recurring facts -- facts such as most of these companies
were serving other businesses rather than consumers. On the surface that's not
a terribly exciting fact in and of itself, but it's one piece of the puzzle.
Another clue is the sort of products and services they offer. They are not
impulse buys. The products and services require days or weeks worth of selling
rather than the 10-minute vacuum-cleaner sale.
What's the ticket price? What's the unit
purchase? Well, it's usually not a million dollars, but it's not the $5 or $10
purchase either. It's a purchase that is in the five hundreds or the thousands
or the few thousands. How are these things sold? Well, they're almost never
sold through intermediaries. They're sold direct to the end user.
Who's the salesperson? The entrepreneur
himself or herself is the salesperson. And if you pull all those facts together
and you put the stories together, you begin to get a deeper level of
understanding of what it is that makes those promising start-ups different from
the great mass of start-ups.
Inc.: You talk about the entrepreneur as
a salesperson and as someone who has a high tolerance for ambiguity. Tell us
about some of the other personal characteristics you've discovered that
differentiate those who start successful companies from those who don't.
Bhidé: Well, of course, there's a certain
amount of luck. You can't deny that. But from their stories you can begin to
figure out a whole bunch of other things. In the face of uncertainty, for
instance, the capacity to adapt becomes absolutely critical. You hear stories
of "I went to try to sell x to my customers, but none of them would buy x,
so I decided to sell y." And it's that capacity to make a quick switch
that becomes important. And it's the capacity, in a sense, to use smoke and
mirrors, to convince people that you are a more stable and long-lived
enterprise than you actually are. That, too, becomes critical. The capacity
just to listen well to what people are telling you -- an essential element of
salesmanship.
Inc.: In your book you say that not only
are successful entrepreneurs not risk takers, but they get the people around
them to take the real risks.
Bhidé: Absolutely. I mean, the biggest
risk in many of these businesses is ultimately taken by the customer. So, in a
sense, who is financing this business? It's customer revenues that are
financing this business. And the risk that the customers are taking is much
more than just the amount of money that they're putting up for the product or
service. They're spending a lot of time, and they're incurring potentially
quite substantial switching costs if the start-up goes under. There is this
idea that the entrepreneur is a crazy, irrational person and that only someone
who is overoptimistic and who doesn't have a good sense of the odds would go
ahead and do these things. What surprised me is that irrationality is central
to the successful start-up, but it's not the entrepreneur who acts
irrationally. It's the people whom the entrepreneur uses to get the business
going.
The mind-set of people who spot and
respond to opportunities quickly may interfere with their capacity to build a
large company.
Inc.: The idea that entrepreneurs seem to
possess this incredible innate or intuitive ability to lay off the risk against
the customers and, to some extent, employees is fascinating. But to change
directions a bit here, when you tell us that successful entrepreneurs are not
doing anything particularly new but instead are improving on what others are
doing, it makes starting a business sound so, well, mundane.
Bhidé: There may not be any big new
ideas, but in our research we did hear about a lot of creativity at the
tactical level. People were telling us, "I have to do this in order to
just see someone or to overcome their concerns about whether we'd be in
business for five months or not." So while the basic idea for the business
may be mundane, the implementation or the execution of the idea-- particularly
the overcoming of the constraints of the lack of money or track record --
involves a great deal of creativity.
Inc.: You said that these companies start
in uncertain market niches. What do you mean by that? Or, more practically,
what should entrepreneurs look for in a niche?
Bhidé: Two things to look for: One is an
area where there is a lot of external change going on. The computer industry
has been a classic example of that. The second characteristic is a business in
which customers don't quite know what they want. They have these amorphous
needs and they can't really compare one vendor with another. That's where the
entrepreneur's personal capabilities can affect the customer's perceptions of
the product or service.
Inc.: Could you give us some examples?
Bhidé: Well, take a laundry. In a
laundry, people have a pretty straightforward idea of what it is they want.
They want their clothes cleaned. They want their buttons not broken. They want
their coats not to get lost. And most of whether that gets done or not is
pretty much out of the hands of the person who runs the store. But in fields
such as entertainment or professional services, buyers place a high value on
fuzzy attributes that they cannot easily measure or define. If you look at the
computer industry, in which you find many successful start-ups, you find that a
significant proportion of them started out in arenas where there was a lot of
hand-holding. That sort of niche allows entrepreneurs to differentiate their
offerings by tapping into the psyche of their customers or by responding to
their unspoken wants. That's where the entrepreneur's personal effort can make
a big difference.
Inc.: Of the hundreds of thousands of
businesses started each year, only a small percentage go on to become
"promising companies," and very few of those promising companies go
on to greatness.
Bhidé: I think it takes an unusual person
to start a promising business. It takes a really extraordinary individual to
build on that business -- extraordinary in terms of someone who has an almost
maniacal level of ambition. Not just ambition to make a comfortable living, to
make a few million dollars, but someone who wants to leave a significant mark
on the world.
It's people like Ford, people like Sam
Walton. As Sam Walton says in his autobiography, lots of people started
discount stores in the early 1960s because it was relatively easy to do.
However, most people who started those businesses then sold out to the larger
chains. And Walton was just not happy to do that. He wanted to leave a legacy
and build something that would be on the scale of a Kmart. I think that very
few businesspeople have the drive to do that.
Inc.: But it's not just motivation. You
say it's also about how few people have the capacity to be improvisers at the
start and then become strategic thinkers later on.
Bhidé: That's right. Think about the
early 1980s. There were a lot of people who without any great insight or any great
creativity figured out that there was quick profit to be had by reselling PCs,
basically living off the IBM world. Now, of a thousand people who might have
thought that was an interesting idea, only a hundred or so might have had the
gumption to actually do it. And then of the hundred or so who had the gumption
to do it -- because they were opportunists, they were resourceful, they jumped
into the stream -- very few had the capacity to say, This could be a
springboard to building something like a Gateway or a Dell. So, I think,
fundamentally, that the mind-set of people who are good at spotting
opportunities quickly and responding to them quickly may actually interfere
with the capacity to step back later on to ask, What's the big picture?
Inc.: So it is in that context that risk
-- so unimportant during the start-up stage -- becomes a crucial factor?
Bhidé: Absolutely. Now you do have
assets; you have something you can lose. And to grow the business, you have to
make a lot more investments.
Inc.: One of the things that begins to be
a prerequisite, if you will, to taking your business to that next level is the
ability to take big risks. And the second is to learn to substitute planning
for improvisation?
Bhidé: Absolutely. And to have a
long-term view about how things will accumulate to add up to something. Many
entrepreneurs start out in businesses in which the uncertainty is very high and
you can do nothing but adapt. But for somebody like Michael Dell, establishing
a long-lived business required a distinctive vision of what his business would
be like.
Inc.: It's interesting, and ironic, that
the traits that hold companies back at a crucial stage of their development are
the only traits that founders tend to romanticize. Perhaps most common is the
lack of any disciplined planning -- the idea that plans are for large
companies, that real entrepreneurs sketch out ideas on the back of an envelope
and then go execute.
Bhidé: Yes, because early on you want to
be incredibly adaptive. You want to be changing your mind a lot. And you want
to be open-minded. But if you remain that open-minded, you won't have the
constancy to principle that is needed to actually implement a long-term
strategy. I think Bill Gates is a fantastic example of someone who has been
able to do that.
Inc.: So the cliché is true then, that
all those things that contributed to your success can become your undoing.
Bhidé: Absolutely. For example, you
typically have the wrong set of employees. I have this lovely picture of
Microsoft from 1980 or something, maybe 1979. There's only one person from that
picture who is still with the company. The same thing is true of Cisco. It
started off with friends. And then VCs and professional managers came and
cleaned up the place. Unless you're prepared to go through that upheaval of
cleaning up, you don't become a large company. Unless you stop being
opportunistic, you don't become large. By that mean that unless you begin to
say, "I'm going to give up some cash-flow opportunities, because I have
this long-term view, and I'm, in fact, reducing current cash flow in order to
build this company -- and I'm not going to chase after every little opportunity
that I see, because I have a vision of where I'm going" -- unless you can
do that, you're not going to become a large, long-life company.
Wal-Mart and Microsoft started off in
this undercapitalized and improvised fashion, and the way they became a success
in the long term was to abandon the very policies that made them successful to
start with.
Inc.: Let's talk a little bit about what
you think your research tells us about how the Internet economy might evolve.
What are the parallels and differences between the start-ups you document in
your book and what's happening now in the Internet world? Why don't we start with
bootstrapping, which has been a critical part of the start-up process as you
describe it.
Bhidé: There probably are many Internet
start-ups that are being bootstrapped as we speak: entrepreneurs providing Web
creation and maintenance to large corporations, for instance. What's different
is that the number of relatively inexperienced individuals with fuzzy ideas who
are getting significant amounts of funding from angel investors and venture
capitalists is incredible. So, many of the ventures that would otherwise have
been bootstrapped are not. Similarly, we see lots of unformed companies go
public at rather extraordinary valuations.
Inc.: And with so much capital -- human
and financial -- going into Internet ventures, what effect do you think that
will have on the economy? Not just the Internet economy, but overall.
Bhidé: I think the implications are
disturbing. New technologies and markets usually emerge through many small
adaptations rather than through one great leap forward. Innovation requires a
lot of trial and error. The entrepreneur tries something on a small scale and
if it works, scales it up, and if it doesn't, tries something else.
We find the same process in the building
of companies: great organizations like Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft take decades
to build; entrepreneurs have to undergo a lot of on-the-job learning before
they can effectively scale up. The easy availability of capital and
unquestioning beliefs in first-mover advantage jeopardize this process of trial
and error. Entrepreneurs are taking expensive, big leaps into the unknown. They
can't easily change direction and don't even have a compass for doing so.
Historically, bootstrapped entrepreneurs
have had to change course if they didn't generate positive cash flow; profits
represented the primary measure of the success of their experiments. In
Internet time everything is supposed to happen immediately -- except the
appearance of profit. I cannot believe this represents a sensible approach to
durable innovation.
Similarly, I cannot believe that many of
the companies going public without having shown any capacity to generate profit
on a small scale will subsequently develop the capacity to generate profit on a
large scale when they are exposed to the many pressures of operating as public
companies. Would Federal Express have effectively refined its business model if
it had been able to go public when it was still losing money rather than having
to wait until it had turned the corner?
Inc.: And the long-term consequences?
Bhidé: In effect we have broken a
critical link. Financial markets used to take their cue from the
"real" markets and provide capital to companies that demonstrated
some evidence of profitability. Some specialized intermediaries, namely venture
capitalists, did underwrite the losses of a few glamorous ventures, but for
relatively short periods of time. Companies like Go and Momenta that failed to
get into the black in a few years used to be cut off. Now, in a strange twist,
capitalist financiers have the same disregard for profits that the socialist
governments of Europe did in the 1960s. Those governments poured taxpayer funds
into "national champions" that turned out to be world-class losers. A
healthy capitalist economy keeps its entrepreneurs on a tight leash -- they live
or die by the profits they make.